Economic Indicator
Macroeconomic data not tied to a specific asset.
Economic Indicator
Definition
Macroeconomic data not tied to a specific asset.
Parameters
Metric name
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators describe the broader economy. Conditions compare the stored value in the source series' units.
Nonfarm Payrolls
FRED PAYEMS is a monthly, seasonally adjusted employment level in thousands of persons. It covers paid nonfarm employees.
- Example condition:
Nonfarm Payrolls > 150000 means the employment level exceeds 150 million persons.
- For monthly job growth: subtract the previous observation month's employment level from the current month's level, then multiply by 1,000 to express the difference in persons. A difference of 150 in PAYEMS units is 150,000 persons. This calculation compares observation months; the raw Economic condition compares levels.
Unemployment Rate
FRED UNRATE is the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in percent.
- Example condition:
Unemployment Rate < 5 means the reported unemployment rate is below 5%.
Money Supply
FRED M2SL is monthly, seasonally adjusted M2 money supply in billions of dollars.
- Example condition:
Money Supply > 20000 means M2 exceeds $20 trillion. Choose a threshold in the source series' units when comparing levels.
Treasury Yield (3-Month)
FRED DGS3MO is the 3-month Treasury constant maturity market yield, expressed in percent.
- Example condition:
Treasury Yield 3M < 4 means the yield is below 4%.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
FRED CPIAUCSL is a monthly, seasonally adjusted price index, with 1982–1984 = 100.
- Example condition:
CPI > 300 means the index level exceeds 300.
- For year-over-year inflation: calculate
100 * (current month's index / same month one year earlier - 1). For example, index levels of 309 and 300 give 3% inflation. The raw Economic CPI value is the index level, not this percentage.
Inspect the signal before testing
Check the series, units, observation period and release time. Economic data uses the release date for vintage series so the strategy can access the value after publication. Monthly-change and inflation research should compare the intended observation periods and the values available at each release. Ask Aurora to inspect these records and explain the condition before creating variants. See the economic strategy guide for a worked unemployment-rate example.
Full indicator reference